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Ny Inflation Relief - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's December survey of consumer expectations, released on Monday (January 9), found that consumers see inflation softening a bit in early 2023 but remaining elevated for longer before that stability returns.

In a press release, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data said: "Average one-year inflation expectations continued to decline in December, falling 0.2 percentage points to 5.0%, the reading lowest since July 2021. On the other hand, three-year inflation expectations were unchanged in December at 3.0%.

Ny Inflation Relief

Ny Inflation Relief

While the Fed's December numbers reflect the fact that there is some consumer optimism, an in-person survey of consumers found more doubt and uncertainty than government figures generally reveal.

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Our December 2022 report, Consumer Inflation Sentiment: In It For The Long Haul, notes that "most consumers agree that we are only halfway through this period of high inflation. Consumers generally think that inflation will return to normal levels by June 2024, or about 20 months from now."

We found that millennials are the most confident group, "believing that inflation will normalize by April 2024, four months ahead of the baby boomer and senior average."

In its survey, the Fed found that the outlook for price changes next year fell by 0.7 percentage points for gas (to 4.1%) and food (to 7.6%), and also recorded a decrease of 0.2 percentage points for university education (to 9.2%). %) and rent (up to 9.6%).

Compare this to December's inflation report, in which consumers reported that fuel prices rose by 43%, "well above the 26% increase recorded by official statistics", along with a rate of perceived inflation that was "significantly different for dairy, 22% vs. 15%, and meat, 23% vs. 8%. The differences are similar across most retail categories, including apparel and electronics. Consumers believe that prices of clothing, for example, are on average 21% above 2021 levels, while the BLS only mentions a 4% increase.

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According to the Fed's December report, "perceptions of access to credit compared to a year ago improved slightly in December, but the share of households reporting that it is harder to get credit than a year ago remains near record highs. So even, expectations of future credit availability increased in December, with a percentage of respondents expecting it to be more difficult to get credit in the coming year”.

Additionally, the report found that the average perception of the likelihood of not meeting minimum debt payments in the next 90 days fell by 0.4% to 11.4%.

Our latest round of US households found that "eroding wages and worries about the future are leading Americans in all economic situations to significantly reduce their spending," with 69% of consumers overall and 59% of consumers whose incomes have increased with inflation. cuts back to non-essential expenses.

Ny Inflation Relief

On Friday (January 13), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release December's Consumer Price Index, which is expected to show inflation falling to 6.5% from a peak of 9.1% in June.

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A study, "New Payment Options: Why Consumers Are Trying Digital Wallets" found that 52% of US consumers tried a new payment method by 2022, with many choosing to try a digital wallet for the first time.

See more in: economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation, market conditions, news, personal finance, studies, yf

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