nukes in crimea

Nukes In Crimea - Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Taran (right) and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak in protective masks, like Ukrainian military personnel who died in battle with pro-Russian separatists on July 10. At the memorial service for Taras Matvih on July 14, 2020, at St. Independence Square in the center of Kyiv, eastern Ukraine. / Hleb Haranich

BRUSSELS, April 14 (April 14) – Ukraine's defense minister on Wednesday accused Russia of preparing a potential nuclear weapons storage facility in Crimea, as Russia would ensure water supplies for the annexed peninsula. threatened to attack Ukraine

Nukes In Crimea

Speaking before an emergency meeting of NATO with the ministers of defense and foreign affairs of the member countries of the Alliance, Andriy Taran said that he cannot rule out the possibility that Russian forces in Crimea "will carry out significant military provocations" this year.

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"The infrastructure of Crimea is ready for the potential storage of nuclear weapons," Taran told the European Parliament subcommittee on defense. "The very presence of nuclear weapons on the peninsula could raise a complex set of political, legal and moral problems."

Taran did not provide any evidence for his claims, but cited the latest Ukrainian information, saying that Russia is amassing 110,000 troops in 56 battalion-tactical groups on the Ukrainian border.

Russia says that NATO, not Moscow, is carrying out threatening military actions in Europe. Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu said on Tuesday that the military action was part of a legitimate exercise to test combat readiness.

It would also complicate the recently expanded disarmament treaty between the United States and Russia, which imposes restrictions on surface- and submarine-launched missiles used to carry nuclear warheads.

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Fighting has escalated in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, with government forces battling Russian-backed separatists for seven years, killing 14,000 people, according to Kyiv. NATO says that the number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is the largest since 2014.

For Washington and its European allies, Ukraine is the most visible test of the decades-long policy of building a ring of Western-allied democracy on Russia's western flank, but Kyiv's accession to NATO or the European Union is not on offer.

US Secretary of State Anthony Brinken, who was in Brussels to discuss strategy with allies, mentioned the "major build-up" of Russia's military. He said NATO "will respond to Russia's aggressive actions inside and outside of Ukraine," but did not give details.

Concerns about the escalation were partially eased after a conversation on Tuesday between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told German public broadcaster ARD that Russia had made a mistake by not notifying NATO of the military exercises in advance, saying that Putin would "continue his actions". he said. ".

Taran called Russia's actions "potentially offensive military exercises" that could be used to "carry out unpredictable and escalating actions" from Crimea.

According to him, Russia has up to 42,000 military personnel stationed in Crimea and has naval and aviation capabilities.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at NATO headquarters on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine ahead of a video conference with all 30 allies. Either go west, or retreat, holding the peninsula.

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According to the Kremlin, Ukraine's dominance of Crimea as a potential nuclear weapons platform is a key element of Russia's national security strategy, which uses the threat of mutually assured destruction through the deployment of nuclear weapons to maintain peace with the West. Armed bombers and submarines at NATO's eastern gate.

But now advancing Ukrainian forces, armed with precision weapons, may soon attack Russian strategic air bases, submarine embankments and nuclear weapons depots on the Black Sea Peninsula. Ukrainian officials and security analysts said they were signaling an escalation against NATO or a retreat to Crimea.

On January 3, the spokesman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andrii Chernyak told Ukrinform that Russian "land, air and sea-based nuclear munitions carriers" are now stationed in the temporarily occupied Crimea. ."

In addition, Ukrainian military intelligence monitored "certain operations" at the top-secret Feodosia-13 nuclear weapons storage facility. The place is a network of Soviet-era reinforced concrete bunkers dug into the slope of a pine mountain overlooking the Black Sea. The resort towns of Koktebel and Sudak, he said.

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In 2001, Ukraine completed the transfer to Russia of all nuclear warheads stored at Feodosiyskaya 13 and elsewhere in the country, as well as the transfer or destruction of all nuclear weapons delivery systems.

In exchange, Ukraine received a Kremlin guarantee that it would respect Ukrainian borders and not threaten Ukrainian national sovereignty. Cherniak said the surge in engineering work at the Feodosiya NPP 13 means Russia intends and has probably already begun to return nuclear weapons to Crimea, and said it would have implications for World War II.

"They (Russia) can do anything," he said. "(We) want the international community to influence the leadership of the occupying country (Russia) to keep the world from plunging into a nuclear catastrophe."

The Russian Federation (RF) would like to keep nuclear delivery systems in Crimea if possible, but the advance of Ukrainian forces armed with long-range strike weapons has already forced the Kremlin to relocate some mobile nuclear delivery systems, including the withdrawal of missile-equipped submarines . And heavy bombers - back to Russia.

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If the ZSU reaches the northern Black Sea coast, they will carry other parts of Russia's nuclear deterrent, including bunkers at Feodosiyskaya 13 and missiles moored in the port of Sevastopol, headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. surface ships. Seleznyov said it would be within range of Ukrainian precision-guided munitions, anti-ship missiles and suicide drones.

"The Ukrainians have a track record of trying to hit any [Russian targets] that they can reach as quickly as possible," Seleznyov said. The big question is how this attack will contribute to their strategy to force Russia out of Ukraine."

On January 1, Oleksiy Yizhak from the National Institute of Strategic Studies (NISD) commented on this to Radio NV.

Most of the Ukrainian attacks on key Russian weapons systems in Crimea may have been chosen by the Kremlin to be interpreted as a direct threat to Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal and Russia's national security, he said.

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"Everything in Crimea is the bearer of a dual ability," said Izak. "They are used in conventional warfare, and anything Russia uses in conventional warfare is a legitimate target."

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly said on September 21 that he was not bluffing when he said he was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.

Mathias Eken, a researcher at the defense and security research group RAND Europe, said the Kremlin would likely avoid compromising the nuclear weapons delivery system in Crimea and that the peninsula is important to Moscow when it comes to nuclear deterrence. But he said he would not do that. . An indispensable part of the Russian nuclear triad.

"Russia will not want to risk losing the advanced platforms it has left, so I think it will proceed somewhat cautiously in Crimea, at least as far as the deployment of advanced weapons platforms is concerned," Eken said. "Russia has enough aircraft, nuclear submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles deployed elsewhere that its nuclear triad would not be threatened by a Ukrainian attack."

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Engineering work is underway on Feodosia-13, but it is unclear if its construction is related to nuclear weapons or stockpiles, and it is said that “(n)or non-strategic nuclear warheads are being removed from the center. there was no credible report that "it was probably discovered by Ukrainian and American intelligence services, so he is being held and stationed in Crimea or elsewhere," Eken said.

"If Ukrainian attacks on Crimea intensify or if Russia is threatened with losing control of the peninsula, the risk of Russia resorting to the threat of nuclear escalation may increase. Even at this scale, the actual use of nuclear weapons, which could pose enormous risks for Russia, remains unlikely," Eken said.

Seleznyov said that Crimea is unlikely to be a pretext for moving up the ladder of Russian nuclear escalation, and warnings from the United States and NATO about the catastrophic consequences of the Kremlin actually detonating nuclear weapons in Ukraine were not directed at Crimea. very likely to prevent the Kremlin's nuclear threat. from becoming a reality.

"But I really don't know what Putin will do if Ukraine attacks these sites," Seleznev said. "The event is the same. They want to help Ukraine, but they don't have a strategy."

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Stefan Korshak is Kyiv Post's senior defense correspondent. He's from Houston, Texas, and he's an ally. For more than 20 years, he was engaged in journalism in the territories of the former Soviet Union, from 2015 to 2019 he led patrols in the Mariupol direction for the OSCE observation missions in Donbas. he has

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