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putin next move

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After Ukraine battlefield advance, Russian leader faces criticism from right for his conduct of war

Putin Next Move

Putin Next Move

Every morning we will send you my Daily Digest e-mail rounding up the latest war news in Ukraine.

Ukraine: What Does Vladimir Putin Want?

At the end of August, the occupation authorities in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kupyansk celebrated to mark the day of the Russian Flag.

Dozens of pro-Kremlin activists and local residents - including pro-Kremlin activists who had been in the city captured by Russian forces six months ago - laid out a 60mx40m Russian triangle on the main square, then waved flags and danced to mixed music. . Patriotic songs.

A few weeks later, the Ukrainian army was forced to surrender more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory in a surprise attack on the Russian invasion forces, leaving behind trucks, armored vehicles and supplies.

The stunning reversal broke the mantra repeated by senior officials who visited the occupied territories in the spring and summer of southern Ukraine that "Russia is here forever."

Putin Underestimated Resistance

Backed by Western arms and intelligence, Ukraine's blitzkrieg across the Kharkiv region has undermined the war's momentum, exposing the vulnerability of Russia's overly aggressive forces and keeping the Kremlin in check.

The dramatic retreat on the battlefield is just one of several Ukrainian confrontations that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has faced this week.

Russia's budget surplus for the year has almost evaporated due to weak oil prices and reduced gas shipments to Europe - which could put even greater pressure on the economy, according to figures released this week. The European Union is mobilizing for an energy war with Moscow, with no sign of weakening its resolve for Western sanctions against Russia.

Putin Next Move

Ukrainian soldiers on the roop in Kupyansk. Ukraine's counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region undermined the momentum of the war © Telegram @kuptg via REUTERS

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Non-Western leaders, hitherto close to Moscow, are beginning to distance themselves from the Kremlin's war. The Russian president admitted to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a summit in Uzbekistan on Thursday that he had "questions and concerns" about the invasion. On Friday, India's Narendra Modi publicly rebuked Putin at the same summit, saying "today's age is not an age of war."

Since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian leader has maintained the public position that it is a "special military operation" — a term designed to instill a sense of business as usual at home. More like Syria than the Russians' traumatic memories of bloody, grinding wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan.

But this position is becoming increasingly untenable - both from a military point of view and from a domestic political point of view.

"By the end of this year, the Kremlin will lose almost all of its artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, tanks and the main part of its ground forces," says Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian military . "How can war be waged without artillery and troops?"

As India Joins China In Distancing From Russia, Putin Warns Of Escalation

He is under pressure not only from the liberal opposition, many of whom have fled the country or are afraid to criticize the invasion, but also from the right, including the most prominent cheerleaders of the war. It is forced to scale.

Alexei Venediktov, editor of the liberal Ekho Moskvy radio station, says Putin is playing a very dangerous game © AFP via Getty Images

"He played a very dangerous game," says Alexei Venidiktov, longtime editor of the liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy, which closed in March.

Putin Next Move

"It is a battle of resources and the most important resource is time. Now you either wait longer [in winter] than in Europe, or the Russian people are tired," continues Venidiktov. "It is not clear who will fall first - Putin or everyone else."

Ukraine Hit With New Barrage As Putin Plans Next Move

On Wednesday, a video surfaced online of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a caterer turned warlord known as "Putin's chef," addressing convicts in a Russian prison.

Prigozhin asked the prisoners to fight on the front lines of Wagner, a shadowy paramilitary group that the United States says operates. If they have survived six months, they will be forgiven; If they left, he said, they would be killed.

The video highlights how Russia is forced to adapt as the war drags on with no victory in sight.

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Putin Under Pressure: What Is Russia's Next Move?

Russia's covert operations are now exposed: Wagner posts billboard ads across Russia. Prigozhin appeared to confirm the authenticity of the video, denying the existence of the group for years.

Prigozhin's apparent push to recruit prisoners for the militia further exacerbated Russia's manpower problems. "Either mercenaries and prisoners [fight], or your children do - decide for yourself," Prigozhin later wrote in a social media post.

Russia's problems only begin there. By seizing Russia's main north-south supply route and capturing a vital position for Moscow's forces, analysts say Ukraine has missed the Kremlin's goal of "liberating" the entire Donbass region. He gave Kiev's forces a boost on the battlefield and assured Ukraine's western allies that they would prevail with their support.

Putin Next Move

Moscow's reaction in Kharkiv drew criticism from the most virulent pro-war camp at home, which openly mourned the defeat and rushed to find someone to blame.

Vladimir Putin's Next Move Could Have Huge Impact On Ireland And The Cost Of Living

This more radical, sail-rattle group has long criticized the Kremlin for not going far enough in its attack on Ukraine. It takes Putin to declare war on a large scale, pushing Russia's vast conscripts into battle and mobilizing the wider population and economy.

"For the first half of the year of the conflict, Russia waged a war like Britain once did in its colonies," says Alexander Borodai, a Russian MP who commands three battalions of volunteers who currently fighting in Ukraine. "The brave English soldiers in red are fighting somewhere in India. And the Metropole usually goes with balls, social gatherings and saloons."

Russian MP Alexander Borodai: "In the first half of the year of the conflict, Russia is at war as Britain once did in its colonies" © AFP via Getty Images

Borodai, who previously led a Moscow-backed Donbas separatist government, adds: "Sometimes in the sun, Rudyard Kipling comes to read his love poems about blood, dust and sand. They praise, donate to the charity, and then come back and continue with life.

Guessing Putin's Next Move As Sanctions Bite

This ultranationalist camp is a minority, on the fringes of Russian politics, and consists mostly of military bloggers and other commentators who write on the Telegram messaging app.

However, it can also have political resonance. "History is made by minorities," says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the Moscow political consultancy R.Politik.

The hyperactivity of the ultranationalist group and its highly vocal and emotional response to the defeat in Kharkiv affects the mainstream pro-Kremlin elite, from TV anchors to technologists, and disturbs its members, Stanovaya says.

Putin Next Move

"In the past, their fear dragged on the war and it would last for years." . . Now, there are fears that Russia could lose," he says. "This raises questions about the future of all those who play a role and are linked to the fate of the government."

Ukraine & Russia: Vladimir Putin's Next Move(s)?

Supranationalist criticism has not gone unnoticed by the Kremlin. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a thinly veiled threat on Tuesday, warning against taking the protest too far -- a rare acknowledgment that the criticism could unsettle Russia's leadership.

"As for other points of view, critics, when they are within the limits of existing legislation, this is pluralism," said Peskov. "But the line is very thin. You have to be very careful here."

Currently, the views of the ultranationalist group are not aligned with those of the wider population. Most Russians are happy to passively support Putin and the war, but prefer to pay as little attention as possible. Their support is not predicated on the escalation of their involvement.

These "absentees," as Greg Yudin, head of political philosophy at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences, called them, are "completely politicized" and want nothing to do with the war.

Brace For Putin's Next Move

Some supporters of the war proposed quasi-measures to strengthen the war effort without alienating what Venediktov calls the "indifferently loyal" majority of the population.

Borodai proposed the partial mobilization of up to 400,000 men and the declaration of martial law only on Russia's borders. "It's too late to admit we're at war. Everything else follows from that," he says.

This will put the burden of mobilization on regional leaders rather than the Kremlin or the Ministry of Defense. Moscow has used this tactic for unpopular policies before, especially during the pandemic, when Putin wanted to introduce blockades without taking responsibility for them.

Putin Next Move

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